The data has yet to land for in-person sales, but this year’s Black Friday saw a 2.3% increase in online sales from 2021… However, even though there was an increase, it fell short of the increase of 8.6% in 2021 and 32% in 2020. (View Highlight)
Like the old saying goes: “A recession is when your neighbour loses his job; a depression is when you lose your job.” (View Highlight)
GDP is being manipulated by government spending. Now keep in mind, with tampering they could only raise the metrics by a few percentage points even with all the stimulus then we are still in a recession. (View Highlight)
Unemployment rate numbers are falsified by counting part-time workers and under-employed workers the equivalent as a full-time worker. Further discourage workers, those who could work, but don’t, are not counted (View Highlight)
For all the talk of “over-employment” that only extends to white collar remote work. Trades, minimum wage etc can’t be solved by taking on extra. (View Highlight)
Inflation is running at 15% easy. Anyone telling you less is either using an aggregate number or hasn’t been to a grocery store recently. CPI is a joke as the basket is always being tweaked. (View Highlight)
In totality it means that Powell and the US Fed will continue to hike rates. Most of the World will follow their lead. Given the lagging effect of rate hikes Q2-Q3 2023 will see the final rate hikes unless something disastrous happens. (View Highlight)
Rate hikes will affect homeowners even without mortgages, for as soon as they try to use their get out of jail free card: the home equity loan, they will find themselves unable to deal with high rates (View Highlight)
Foreclosures are also increasing at minimum 57% month over month within the United States. This is due to poor economic conditions, as-well as mortgage forbearance and moratorium programs from the CARES Act ending. (View Highlight)
Globally housing is overinflated. The Australians and Canadians are giving 08’ a run for its money. Corporations chasing returns haven’t been making the situation better either. (View Highlight)
Everyone wants into certain neighbourhoods. The real question becomes with more houses being built and foreclosures how bad will it get. (View Highlight)
Despite little to negative returns Institutions such as Blackrock may hold onto properties despite them being underwater, due to their ability to get cheaper rates than the average joe and it being a better return than straight cash. (View Highlight)
The economy will enter a “recession” globally. Worse is all the more likely. The rates, inflation, etc will catch up with the job, housing markets, and financial system (View Highlight)