A Probabilistic Approach to Evaluate the Likelihood of Artificial Genetic Modification and Its Application to SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant
A Probabilistic Approach to Evaluate the Likelihood of Artificial Genetic Modification and Its Application to SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant

A Probabilistic Approach to Evaluate the Likelihood of Artificial Genetic Modification and Its Application to SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant

The proposed method is applied to evaluate whether the Omicron variant strain of SARS-CoV-2, whose spike protein includes 29 N mutations and only one S mutation, can emerge through natural evolution (View Highlight)

Even with the conventional model where the probabilities of any kinds of mutations are all equal, the strong N/S mutation bias in the Omicron spike can occur with a probability of 3.7 x 10^(-3), which means that the Omicron variant is highly likely a product of artificial genetic modification. (View Highlight)

A method to find a probability that a given bias of mutations occur naturally is proposed to test whether a newly detected virus is a product of natural evolution or artificial genetic modification (View Highlight)