  # An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic

This idea defines a valid argument. It is logically impossible for the conclusion to be false given that the premises are true. (Location 284)

An argument is valid if and only if the corresponding conditional proposition is a truth of logic. (Location 323)

“Truth-preserving” means that whenever you start out with true premises, you will end up with a true conclusion. (Location 328)

Validity has to do with the logical connection between premises and conclusion, and not with the truth of the premises or the conclusion. (Location 342)

Validity is about the connection between premises and conclusion, not about truth or falsehood. (Location 361)

Inductive logic analyzes risky arguments using probability ideas. (Location 664)

decide what to do on the basis of two ingredients:   What we think will probably happen (beliefs).   What we want (values). (Location 669)

Decision theory analyzes risky decision -making (Location 674)

A chance setup is unbiased if and only if the relative frequency in the long run of each outcome is equal to that of any other. (Location 839)

The idea of a fair tossing device seems to involve there being no regularity in the outcomes. (Location 852)

Trials on a chance setup are independent if and only if the probabilities of the outcomes of a trial are not influenced by the outcomes of previous trials. (Location 870)

But we could not detect any regularity in the rolls. It did not look as if the outcome of any roll depended on previous rolls. Rolls of this bone seem to be independent (Location 900)

says: “No way! Gamma has a long record of safety violations. (Location 1005)

Criticizing the model is like challenging the premises. Criticizing the analysis of the model is like challenging the reasoning. (Location 1033)

Propositions are true or false. Events occur or do not occur. (Location 1141)

the probabilities of mutually exclusive propositions or events add up. (Location 1201)

Adding probabilities is for mutually exclusive events or propositions. (Location 1218)

the probabilities of independent events or propositions can be multiplied. (Location 1225)

Multiplying probabilities is for independent events or propositions. (Location 1244)

When Pr(B) > 0 Pr(A/B) = Pr(A (Location 1404)